Leitura do Dia - Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests

Diebold, F.X. (2012), "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests,"

Manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test was intended for comparing forecasts; it has been, and remains, useful in that regard. The DM test was not intended for comparing models. Unfortunately, however, much of the large subsequent literature uses DM-type tests for comparing models, in (pseudo-) out-of-sample environments. In that case, much simpler yet more compelling full-sample model comparison procedures exist; they have been, and should continue to be, widely used. The hunch that (pseudo-) out-of-sample analysis is somehow the "only," or "best," or even a "good" way to provide insurance against in-sample over-fitting in model comparisons proves largely false. On the other hand, (pseudo-) out-of-sample analysis may be useful for learning about comparative historical predictive performance.




Por coincidência ontem apresentei o teste DM para os alunos do mestrado, para avaliação de previsões de volatilidade condicional, um contexto já problemático. Mas nesse texto claro como cristal Diebold apresenta os problemas da comparação e seleção de modelos com base apenas em avaliações de previsão.