Leitura do Dia - ARE ANY GROWTH THEORIES ROBUST?

ARE ANY GROWTH THEORIES ROBUST?

Steven N. Durlauf, Andros Kourtellos, and Chih Ming Tan

Abstract
This paper investigates the strength of empirical evidence for various growth theories when there
is model uncertainty with respect to the correct growth model. Using model averaging methods,
we find little evidence that so-called fundamental growth theories play an important role in
explaining aggregate growth. In contrast, we find strong evidence for macroeconomic policy
effects and a role for unexplained regional heterogeneity, as well as some evidence of parameter
heterogeneity in the aggregate production function. We conclude that the ability of cross-country
growth regressions to adjudicate the relative importance of alternative growth theories is limited.