Leitura do dia - THE CONQUEST OF SOUTH AMERICAN INFLATION

THE CONQUEST OF SOUTH AMERICAN INFLATION
THOMAS SARGENT, NOAH WILLIAMS, AND TAO ZHA

Abstract. We infer determinants of Latin American hyperinflations and stabi-
lizations by using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate a hidden Markov model that assigns roles both to fundamentals in the form of government deficits that are financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals. Levels and conditional volatilities of monetized deficits drove most hyperinflations and stabilizations, with a notable exception in Peru where a cosmetic reform of the type emphasized by Marcet and Nicolini (2003) seems to have been at work.

Um Tour de Force em macroeconomia, métodos computacionais e inferência.